THE POWER OF THE PROTEST VOTE

Can we see a November Surprise?

 

Based on a two-party system, it appears to be an Obama landslide—but not so fast! There are other parties—that conservative and independent voters are being drawn to in exponential numbers.

 

The Constitution Party, the largest third party in the United States, based on voter registration (Ballot Access News), has seen the campaign of the party’s Presidential nominee Dr. Chuck Baldwin (www.Baldwin2008.com) gain momentum as more voters appear to be shunning both 'Big Box' candidates.

 

The Libertarian Party has seen its ranks swell due to former Congressman Bob Barr running for its Presidential poll position.

 

The Baldwin candidacy is garnering widespread support and is on course to offer voters a viable alternative in the November presidential contest.

 

“Voters all over the country have told me, they’re ‘afraid of Obama and don’t trust McCain’”, noted Constitution Party presidential candidate Chuck Baldwin.

 

A recent Fox News poll (www.foxnews.com.elections) shows Americans are considering the third party option as never before - 47% said they’d vote for a third party candidate.

 

A Zogby poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1505) showed similar numbers as voters voiced discontent with the current Republican and Democratic candidates:

 

Fully 48% said they are dissatisfied and the survey finds 44% would never vote for Obama; 42% said McCain “will never get” their support!

 

Baldwin,  2004 Constitution Party Vice Presidential candidate, is an outspoken conservative political newspaper and internet columnist  (NewsWithViews.com ), pastor and founder  of  Pensacola’s well-known Crossroad Baptist Church, a radio talk show host (www.chuckbaldwinlive.com) and author (http://www.chuckbaldwinlive.com/sketch.html).

 

Baldwin won his party’s nomination after a whopping 74% of the delegates at the Constitution Party convention voted for him over former UN Ambassador Allen Keyes. http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751, formerly a favorite with the Constitution grassroots rank and file.

 

“American voters are likely to deliver a ‘November Surprise’ to the two “Big Box” parties now controlling our government,” Baldwin predicted, saying, “It’s shaping up to be a ‘pendulum swing’ year.  American voters have a right to expect their president to secure their borders, support life from conception to its natural end, and never commit American soldiers to a war unless it has been legally declared by congress and is necessary to protect and defend this nation.  I am that candidate, I will be that president.”

 

Link to The New York Times article:

  http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/the-power-of-the-protest-vote/index.html 

 

 Full text of article:

 

THE NEW YORK TIMES/ July 29, 2008

 

The Power of the Protest Vote

By ANDREW KOHUT

 

Don’t be surprised if third or fourth party presidential candidates garner enough votes in November to make a difference in some of the hotly contested swing states. The polls show more than enough Republican disaffection with John McCain’s candidacy to make a case that Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, or another right-of-center candidate could take votes away from the G.O.P. standard bearer. And on the Democratic side, Barack Obama has to worry about defections of not only Hillary Clinton’s supporters, but also of liberals, who are beginning to grumble that he is moving too much toward the center.

 

The 2000 presidential election clearly showed that third party candidates do not have to roll up big numbers to make a huge difference. Ralph Nader accumulated just 2 percent of the vote in Florida — and exit polls found that Al Gore was the second choice among most of Mr. Nader’s voters. While Democratic voters were never wildly enthusiastic about Mr. Gore during that campaign, the climate of opinion about John McCain is more fragile this year.

 

Pew’s nationwide voter poll in late June revealed that significantly fewer McCain supporters than Obama supporters say they are strongly committed to their candidate. Mr. McCain engenders less commitment than George W. Bush enjoyed at this stage in his presidential campaigns. Indeed, the disparity in strong support for the two candidates this year is the largest measured in the last two decades. Among supporters of each candidate, almost twice as many describe themselves as strong Obama backers compared with McCain backers (58 percent vs. 34 percent).

 

Mr. McCain’s standing is in stark contrast to the support for Mr. Bush four years ago, when the vast majority of Bush voters (71 percent) said they backed him strongly. In June 2000, committed Bush backers constituted only 44 percent of his support, but this was significantly more than Mr. McCain now registers. You have to go back to Bob Dole in 1996 to match the current lack of enthusiasm for John McCain.

 

Today, Republican voter malaise is evident in a number of other ways, as well. Uncharacteristically, fewer Republicans than Democrats say it really matters who wins the presidential election (62 percent vs. 70 percent). And while 74 percent of Democrats say they are satisfied with the candidates, only 49 percent of Republicans feel this way.

 

While the Democrats and the Obama campaign can take some comfort in these numbers, there are potential problems for them, too. Barack Obama has a unity problem. Hillary Clinton’s supporters have moved in Mr. Obama’s direction since the primaries ended, but only 72 percent say they would back him if the election were held today. In particular, Mr. Obama is not polling well among white women. Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are running about even among this important voter bloc and he trails Mr. McCain among older women, despite the strong Democratic disposition of this group.

 

Could a small number of disappointed Clinton supporters be attracted to a third party candidate? Sure. Perhaps more important, there is the question of whether Mr. Obama can live up to the expectations that his liberal backers have about his commitment to change. The Times’ William Yardley reported recently that critics on the left are emerging in response to Mr. Obama’s positions on the war in Iraq, wiretapping, gun control and the death penalty.

 

While there is little indication of this in Pew’s polling data, our latest survey finds a rise in support of the idea of a third party candidate among people who have been ardent Obama backers: young voters, liberals and independents.

 

Nonetheless, given the level of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama, it is unlikely that a left-of-center third party candidate could draw major support, but certainly matching Mr. Nader’s 2000 numbers in Florida cannot be ruled out. And on the Republican side, the door is wide open for a third party to matter. In fact, polls conducted by Fox News, The Los Angeles Times and ABC/Washington Post now have about 7 percent of the vote going either to Mr. Barr or Mr. Nader. Whatever the limitations of these candidates’ personal appeal, either or both could be protest candidates.