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So, what a sitting President never used such rhetoric before, is this really a big deal?

 

Or might it be a signal, a wink and a nod, if you will, in a Clint Eastwood “make my day” moment, declaring open season on Iran.

 

Preposterous? Even if there were a shred of truth in that, what nation would dare to take the challenge to stop Iran from getting nuclear bombs that some experts say are only 3 months away? And if such a tiny nation were to wipe out Iran’s nuclear potential overnight, what other bigger nation or nations might retaliate? And if such nations did choose to retaliate, what nation located in the general proximity of “north of Mexico and south of Canada” might be forced to make a quick and monumental decision?

 

Conducting Talk Show interviews on this topic is author/lecturer Avi Lipkin, former Senior Translator in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office as well as a reservist with the Israeli Defense Forces for 14 years.

 

Avi Lipkin is well qualified to discuss the subject, having completed his B.A. in Sovietology at Hebrew University in 1971. He has conducted hundreds of public lectures about the relationship between nations of the Middle East, Russia and the United States.

 

During your interview, Avi Lipkin will NOT be your typical ‘talking head’ that says nothing when his lips move. Quite to the contrary, Avi will decode the Israeli-Russian-
America-Iranian connection for your audience with such excerpts as:

 

“Even though the democratic world sees Iran today as a threat to the world economy and Western Civilization, Russia still views America as the #1 threat to Russia and will back Iran to the hilt to protect it from Western ‘Interventionalism.’

 

It was the German philosopher Heinrich Heine who said two hundred years ago: ‘The world is going to have to choose between the foolishness of the Americans and the tyranny of the Russians.’

 

Indeed, in 1820, Alexis De Tocqueville wrote his book Democracy in America’ at a time that America was the only democracy on the face of the Earth.

 

By the end of WWII, there were twenty democracies in the world.

 

Today there are over 120 democracies in the world including those in Latin America and the former Soviet Socialist bloc.

 

Those countries or groups that feel most threatened are Russia, China and the Islamic nations that have never experienced democracy.

 

If Shi'ite Iran is seeking to destroy the Sunnis, the Christians and the Jews by the ‘Shi'ite Crescent’ confrontation with these groups, then Russia and China will be on the side of the Shi'ites (Iranians) and the West will be on the side of the Sunnis and Christians.

 

I think that Sovietologist and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is now understanding this.”

Fluent in six languages, Avi has received his B. A. from Hebrew University, 1973, majoring in Sovietology/Russian Studies and East European Studies.

 

Avi Lipkin is well versed in the centuries of Islamic wars.  He was born in the U.S. but immigrated (made Aliyah) to Israel in 1968.

 

 

INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE/ Wednesday, October 17, 2007

 

Nuclear-armed Iran risks 'World War III,' Bush says

By Brian Knowlton

 

WASHINGTON: President George W. Bush said Wednesday that he thought Russia still wanted to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But stepping up his own rhetoric, the president warned that for Tehran to possess such a weapon raised the risk of a "World War III."

 

That comment, made during a 45-minute news conference, came as reporters probed for the president's reaction to a warning Tuesday by President Vladimir Putin of Russia against any military strikes on Iran to halt the nuclear work it has continued in defiance of much of the world. Iran says the program is purely peaceful.

 

"If Iran had a nuclear weapon, it'd be a dangerous threat to world peace," Bush said. "So I told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested" in ensuring Iran not gain the capacity to develop such weapons.

 

"I take the threat of Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously," he said.

 

The United States has said it is pursuing a diplomatic approach to Iran, including the threat of a new round of United Nations sanctions, but has refused to rule out military action to halt Iran's nuclear program, which it believes might be used covertly to develop nuclear weapons.

 

But in Tehran on Tuesday, Putin said, "Not only should we reject the use of force, but also the mention of force as a possibility."

 

Asked Wednesday about photos that showed a seemingly cordial meeting in Tehran between Putin and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Bush said he was loath to read too much into photographs and wanted to hear Putin's own "readout" of the meeting.

 

Proposed new UN sanctions against Iran, pressed in particular by the United States and France, have so far been blocked by Russia, which holds a veto on the Security Council and wants further dialogue with Tehran.

 

But Putin has gone further, questioning what evidence the Americans and French have for asserting that Iran intends to make nuclear weapons.

 

When President Nicolas Sarkozy of France visited Putin in Moscow early this month, Putin said: "We don't have information showing that Iran is striving to produce nuclear weapons. That's why we're proceeding on the basis that Iran does not have such plans."

 

Sarkozy said the two might "not have quite the same analysis of the situation."

 

France has argued that aggressive moves toward multilateral sanctions against Iran are the best way to avoid military against Iran.

 

And while Putin says that Russia is taking Iran's descriptions of its program at face value, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently asserted that Iran was lying to UN inspectors.

 

Bush, seeking to explain his relationship with a man whom he once said he viewed as a trusted ally against terrorism - but who has since led his country in steadily more authoritarian directions - said that he and Putin "don't agree on a lot of issues."

 

Still, he said, it was vital to maintain an open and candid relationship that allowed each man to speak his mind.

 

The president nonetheless acknowledged American frustrations at trying to influence Russia.

 

"In terms of whether or not it's possible to reprogram the kind of basic Russian DNA, which is a centralized authority," Bush said, "that's hard to do."

 

The best he could do, the president said, was to try to make it clear that it is in Moscow's interests to have good relations with the West, and an open and democratic government.

 

 

MORE background for interview prep:

 

 

THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE HELPFUL WITH SHOW PREP:

 

THE NEW YORK TIMES/ October 17, 2007

 

In Iran, Putin Warns Against Military Action

By NAZILA FATHI and C. J. CHIVERS

 

TEHRAN, Oct. 16 — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said at a summit meeting of five Caspian Sea nations in Iran on Tuesday that any use of military force in the region was unacceptable. In a declaration, the countries agreed that none would allow their territories to be used as a base for military strikes against any of the others.

 

“We should not even think of making use of force in this region,” Mr. Putin said.

 

Mr. Putin’s comments and the declaration come at a time when the United States has refused to rule out military action to halt Iran’s nuclear energy program, which it believes masks a desire to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its program, including the enrichment of uranium, is solely for peaceful purposes.

 

Asked this morning about Mr. Putin’s remarks, Tony Fratto, the deputy White House press secretary, played them down, saying simply, “That sounds like a good policy.”

 

And later, Tom Casey, the deputy State Department spokesman, said, “I think the president’s made clear, and U.S. policy’s been consistent, that we’re pursuing a diplomatic path with respect to Iran.” He noted that Russia had joined in several unanimous votes at the United Nations Security Council demanding that Tehran end any uranium-enriching activities.

 

Mr. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran and leaders from three other Caspian Sea nations that have rich oil and gas resources, promising to use diplomacy to try to resolve the international debate over Iran’s nuclear program.

 

Later he had a meeting with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which he said he had expressed a desire for “deeper” relations between the countries, Reuters reported.

 

Mr. Putin was the first Kremlin leader to travel to Iran since 1943, when Stalin attended a wartime summit meeting with Churchill and Roosevelt. His statements, which were consistent with his past positions cautioning against military action against Iran, were nonetheless stark in their setting and firmly emphasized his differences with the United States over the extent of Iran’s threat and the means to counter it.

 

“Not only should we reject the use of force, but also the mention of force as a possibility,” Mr. Putin said.

 

Russia has blocked a third set of sanctions against Iran at the United Nations that were intended to persuade Tehran to stop enrichment activities, which Western nations fear could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin has emphasized the need for further dialogue and working through the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that Iran’s nuclear programs were for peaceful purposes.

 

He has further called into question the concerns of the United States, France and other European countries about Iran, saying that while he sought transparency in its nuclear program he had not seen clear evidence of any Iranian intention to make nuclear weapons.

 

In spite of Mr. Putin’s strong statements and the evident show of solidarity among the five countries bordering the Caspian Sea — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as Russia and Iran — significant regional tensions remain, particularly about the division of the sea’s main resource, oil.

 

Iran and the Soviet Union once had agreements for sharing its resources, including a water boundary. Before 1991, each country took 50 percent of the oil and gas from the sea.

 

But since the Soviet Union collapsed, the successor governments in the newly independent Caspian nations have quarreled over where their sea borders should be drawn.

 

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have expressed interest in building pipelines under the sea, which would allow Central Asian governments to bypass Russian pipelines as they ship their resources to the West. Russia opposes the idea, which would break its monopoly, citing environmental concerns.

 

In the absence of a multilateral agreement and mutually accepted borders, the Caspian nations are developing the oil resources as they see fit, although analysts have said that the absence of clear borders has limited the sector’s development.

 

“The division of the sea is not less important than the nuclear program,” said Ahmad Nateq Nouri, a former speaker of the Iranian Parliament, in a report carried by the Fars news agency.

 

But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program overshadowed the others. Mr. Putin’s remarks also underscored a longstanding unease in the Kremlin with what it has regarded as a creeping American military presence in Central Asia, a region once solely under Moscow’s control.

 

Since the terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, the Pentagon has built a military base in Kyrgyzstan to support operations in Afghanistan, and has expanded its collaboration with Azerbaijan, including underwriting improvements to a former Soviet airfield there. It also has an agreement allowing military transport planes en route to Afghanistan to refuel in Turkmenistan, a country that has made neutrality a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

 

The American presence and collaboration in the region have alarmed Moscow, while Washington’s potential access to improved airfields in two countries bordering Iran — Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan — has fueled speculation that the airfields could support actions against Tehran.

 

Mr. Ahmadinejad intimated as much in his statements on Tuesday. “On many issues we have reached final agreement, but we also need collective cooperation,” he said. “The goal is to keep the sea clear of military competitions and keep foreigners out of the region.”

 

Although Mr. Putin and Mr. Ahmadinejad were resolute, their statements appeared to have more political than military significance, and were not a departure from the status quo. The United States does not have existing agreements with any Caspian nation to launch attacks on another. Rather, the Pentagon has negotiated limited bilateral agreements in the region that allow for flights to Afghanistan through local airspace, refueling, emergency landings and the like.

 

Moreover, with American military assets assembled in Iraq and other Persian Gulf nations, and aircraft carriers and submarines in the region as well, it was not clear that any of the Caspian countries would be essential for a raid on Iran.

 

The Caspian meeting also concluded without a clear agreement on territorial demarcation. The leaders said in the declaration that the sea would be used for peaceful purposes and its issues would be resolved by the coastal nations.

 

Mr. Putin and Mr. Ahmadinejad discussed the completion of a nuclear power plant that Russia has been building in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr. Russia has given various reasons for delays in completing the plant and delivering fuel for the start-up. Brushing that aside, Mr. Ahmadinejad told Mr. Putin that Iran was willing to have Moscow build two more plants in Bushehr, the ISNA news agency reported.

 

Mr. Putin was received by the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, at the Tehran airport, according to state-run television. Mr. Putin, who had flown from Germany, where he met Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday, went ahead with the trip despite a report of a possible assassination plot against him in Iran.

 

Iran is counting on Russia and China, which have important trade ties with Iran, to use their veto power to oppose another round of sanctions in the Security Council. Russia has voted for two sets of sanctions, but has said that it will not support a third set without convincing evidence that Iran had a program to build nuclear weapons.

 

In addition to the nuclear power plants and business ties, Moscow has a long record of military collaboration with Iran, which relies on Soviet-era and Russian weapons and supplies for its armed forces. The Russian president’s visit appeared to underscore the many levels of bilateral ties.

 

Mr. Putin said the two countries planned to cooperate on space, aviation and energy issues, and suggested that the tensions with the West over Iran’s nuclear program had provided Russia a unique role. “Russia is the only country that is helping Iran to realize its nuclear program in a peaceful way,” he said.

 

Nazila Fathi reported from Tehran, and C. J. Chivers from Moscow. Brian Knowlton contributed reporting from Washington.

 

Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company