ARE THE BIG THREE SALVAGABLE?
“Only Ford can be Fixed,” says Expert
 (Bob Chapman resides in Central Time)

The current comical acronyms for the big three auto giants are:

FORD: “Fix Or Refinance Daily”

GM: “General Mess”

Chrysler: “Crisis-ler”

But in all seriousness, the question is: “Are any of the big three salvageable?”

“Only Ford is fixable,” says economic forecaster/author/ auto analyst Bob Chapman.

During your Talk Show with Bob Chapman, he predicts, “GM will go out of business on June 1, 2009 and Chrysler perhaps next week.”

Although Ford Motor Company lost a mere $1.4 billion in their last quarter, that was considerably better than projected and far better than GM and Chrysler. (See article below.)

Your audience will enjoy former U.S. Army Counter-intelligence-agent Bob Chapman’s keen instincts and uncanny analytical abilities which served him well in his transition from military strategy to economic forecasting.

Predicting many years in advance the current financial collapse, Bob contends that the economy still has a very long way yet to fall, a.k.a. “Depression.”

Upon what basis does Bob Chapman make this dire claim? Simple. Bob chooses to ignore most of the outward traditional economic indicators, to delve deep into the actual hidden forces that shape our future.

With an unparalleled grasp of worldwide financial markets and the politics that drives them, Bob explains in blunt layman’s terms just what we may expect to see economically in the near and long term.

Is your audience confused about how and which current world events really work together to impact their lives? Treat them to Bob Chapman’s unique perspectives spoken with refreshing clarity that will clarify what currently seems like sheer fiscal confusion.

Since 1967, Bob Chapman has immersed himself in the study of world politics and economics. His articles have run in more than 200 publications. His newsletter, "THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER,” has active subscribers all worldwide. Bob Chapman has conducted hundreds of workshops at business conferences and has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and television programs.

Some of Bob Chapman’s uncanny predictions:

* Called the top of the market in April, 2000
* Predicted 9/11 or an event like that, nine months early, within 33 days of the actual event.
* Predicted the invasion of both Afghanistan and Iraq two years before they occurred.

ROBERT J. CHAPMAN BIOGRAPHY:

Mr. Chapman is 73 years old. He was born in Boston, MA and attended Northeastern University majoring in business management. He spent three years in the U. S. Army Counterintelligence, mostly in Europe. He speaks German and French and is conversant in Spanish. He lived in Europe for six years, off and on, three years in Africa, one year in Canada and another year in the Bahamas.

Mr. Chapman became a stockbroker in 1960 and retired in 1988. For 18 of those years he owned his own brokerage firm. He was probably the largest gold and silver stockbroker in the world during that period. When he retired he had over 6,000 clients.

From 1962 through 1976 he specialized in South African gold shares. He and his family lived in Salisbury, Rhodesia (now Harare, Zimbabwe) and Johannesburg, South Africa from 1970 to 1973. During that time he did a great deal of further study into the South African mining industry.

Mr. Chapman belonged to The Traders Association for 25 years. He did all his own trading. During his South African years some was done directly through Johannesburg, but 95% was done through London brokerage firms. Hence, he has extensive contacts, both in London and on the Continent.

Starting in 1967 Mr. Chapman began writing articles on business, finance, economics and politics having been printed and reprinted over the years in over 200 publications. He owned and wrote the Gary Allen Report, which had 30,000 subscribers. He currently is owner and editor of The International Forecaster, a compendium of information on business, finance, economics and social and political issues worldwide, which reaches 10,000 investors and brokers monthly directly, and parts of his publication are picked up by 60 different websites weekly exposing his ideas to over 10 million investors a week.

In 1976, after the Soweto riots, Mr. Chapman began buying North American shares exclusively for his clients. Up to that point only a handful of American and Canadian issues interested him, due to the high dividends the South African shares had paid out over the years. Between 1976 and 1988 his business surged from 1,000 to 6,000 clients, so the bulk of his business ended up being Vancouver Stock Exchange issues. For this reason he is very conversant with the quality of management, geologists, properties and traders on today’s North American scene. He is well known.

From 1976 to present he has spoken and given workshops at over 200 business conferences worldwide, and has been on radio and TV thousands of times. Until his retirement he was always judged by the attendees to be one of the top three speakers and never once was lower than first in workshops due to his vast knowledge of the mining business and his grasp of worldwide financial markets and political scenes.

In June of 1991, at the request of business associates, and due to retirement boredom, he began writing the International Forecaster.

THE NEW YORK TIMES/ April 25, 2009

Ford Has Loss of $1.4 Billion in Quarter, but Beats Forecast
By NICK BUNKLEY

DETROIT — The Ford Motor Company said on Friday that it lost $1.4 billion in the first quarter and that it did not plan to seek federal aid even as its two domestic rivals faced the possibility of bankruptcy.

Ford, the only Detroit automaker not being kept afloat by the government, said it had $21.3 billion in cash as of March 31, after going through $3.7 billion of its automotive cash reserves in the quarter. That is better than the $7.2 billion it used in the fourth quarter, even though sales were lower from January to March.

“Our results in the first quarter reflected the extremely difficult business environment and weak demand for autos around the world,” Ford’s chief executive, Alan R. Mulally, said in a statement. “Despite the challenges, Ford made strong progress on our transformation plan by gaining share with strong new products, slowing operating-related cash outflows, reducing outstanding debt, lowering our structural costs and reaching new agreements with the U.A.W.”

The company’s loss, equal to 60 cents a share, compared with a profit of $70 million, or 3 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2008. Excluding one-time items, including the benefit of a debt restructuring and a charge related to the potential sale of its Volvo brand, Ford lost $1.8 billion after taxes, or 75 cents a share. That is roughly $1 billion less than analysts expected but $2.3 billion worse than the profit it posted a year ago.

Ford said it was “on track to meet or beat its financial targets,” including a goal of eliminating operating losses by 2011. It said that automotive structural costs were reduced by $1.9 billion in the quarter and that it expected to exceed its goal of a $4 billion reduction for all of this year.

“Clearly, these continue to be challenging days for the global auto industry. I remain encouraged by the progress Ford is making to allow us to operate through the downturn and emerge as a lean, globally integrated automaker poised for profitable growth when the economy rebounds,” Mr. Mulally said. “Ford continues to take decisive actions working with all of our stakeholders to ensure our long-term competitiveness.”

Revenue was $24.8 billion, 37 percent lower than the $39.2 billion in the period a year ago.
Ford’s automotive operations lost $1.9 billion on sales of 973,000 vehicles in the quarter. That is down from $622 million in the first quarter of 2008, when it sold 558,000 more vehicles.

The company lost $637 million in North America, where new-vehicle sales across the industry are mired in their worst slump since the early 1980s. Ford Motor Credit, the automaker’s lending arm, reported a pre-tax loss of $62 million, down from a $64 million profit in the first quarter a year ago.

While General Motors and Chrysler march toward possible bankruptcy, Ford has managed to separate itself from their plight by forgoing federal aid and maintaining investments in developing new products.

Even though it lost a record $14.6 billion in 2008, Ford has enough cash on hand to last through at least 2010, Patrick Archambault, an analyst with Goldman Sachs, said this week. Mr. Archambault upgraded his rating on Ford stock to “buy,” helping shares of the company to their highest level in six months. Ford shares have more than doubled since February.

“Unlike G.M., we do not foresee bankruptcy at Ford,” Mr. Archambault wrote to his clients. “With G.M. and Chrysler likely to file for bankruptcy in coming weeks, in our view, we think the stage is set for a sea change in the structure of the U.S. auto industry.”

Another analyst, Brian A. Johnson of Barclay’s Capital, said recently that he was “increasingly comfortable” that Ford can maintain sufficient liquidity to fund its operations.

But Ford’s health is only relative to the other Detroit carmakers. Its sales were down 43 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 38 percent decline for the industry over all. The company is counting on its upcoming Taurus sedan and new Fusion hybrid sedan, along with a recently started program that covers monthly payments for buyers who lose their jobs, to draw more customers.

Many Ford dealers say they already are seeing more customers trading in vehicles built by G.M. and Chrysler. “Ford may actually benefit from market share losses as it picks up ‘Buy American’ consumers who may shun the other two companies (either on political grounds of not supporting bailouts or on concerns of purchasing from a bankrupt company),” Mr. Johnson wrote in a note to clients this week.

Chrysler could file for bankruptcy protection as soon as next week and is working to finalize an alliance with the Italian automaker Fiat, as directed by the Obama administration’s automotive task force. G.M. has until June 1 to develop a more aggressive restructuring plan and to reach deals with the United Automobile Workers union and its bondholders.

Ford’s unionized workers already ratified changes to their 2007 contract that are expected to save the automaker at least $500 million a year. Ford eliminated its jobs bank program, which allowed laid-off workers to continue collecting most of their salary, and persuaded the union to accept stock in place of up to $6.5 billion in contributions to a new health-care fund for retirees. It is expected to push the union for any additional concessions granted to G.M. or Chrysler, as well.

The company also cut its automotive debt by $10.1 billion, or 38 percent, through a restructuring program that concluded earlier this month.

Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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